With the current semiconductor pricing hike, how long will it last? based on the solid facts, collect legit estimations in the future with high accurate reasoning.
Output condition
as of
Analysis Date: 2026-10-12
The current semiconductor pricing hike is primarily driven by an unprecedented memory chip shortage fueled by the AI boom. Most industry forecasts suggest that while price increases will moderate, meaningful relief is unlikely before late 2027, with supply-demand tightness potentially persisting into 2028.
Gartner estimates DRAM prices will increase 125% and NAND flash prices 234% in 2026. Global semiconductor revenue is projected to exceed $1.3 trillion, growing 64% in 2026. (Gartner, 2026-04-08) https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-04-08-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-semiconductor-revenue-to-exceed-us-dollars-one-point-3-trillion-in-2026
AI giants are buying memory chips at unprecedented rates, paying premiums for multiyear contracts. Some DRAM prices are now more than 10 times their January 2025 levels. (Bloomberg, 2026-03-08) https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-ai-boom-memory-chip-shortage/
HP Inc. expects volatility to remain throughout fiscal 2026 and likely into fiscal 2027. (Bloomberg, 2026-03-08) https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-ai-boom-memory-chip-shortage/
Micron stated in June 2026: "We currently do not have line-of-sight as to when memory supply will be able to catch up with increasing demand." (Bloomberg, 2026-03-08) https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-ai-boom-memory-chip-shortage/
Intel Corp. (Feb. 2026): "There's no relief as far as I know. There's no relief until 2028." (Bloomberg, 2026-03-08) https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-ai-boom-memory-chip-shortage/
TSMC has raised foundry prices across all nodes at 5/4 nm and below for 2026. Further increases in subsequent years cannot be ruled out. (TrendForce / DRAMeXchange, 2026-03-19) https://www.dramexchange.com
Advanced nodes and packaging capacities are fully loaded, driving price hikes. 8-inch capacity is tightening due to production cuts and AI power IC demand. (TrendForce, 2026-03-06) https://www.trendforce.com/research/download/RP260306ID3
Gartner: "Any meaningful pricing relief is not expected until late 2027." (Gartner, 2026-04-08) https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-04-08-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-semiconductor-revenue-to-exceed-us-dollars-one-point-3-trillion-in-2026
TrendForce: NAND flash supply and demand will balance in H2 2027, ending the SSD shortage. (TrendForce, 2026-07-21) https://overclock3d.net
TrendForce: DRAM supply remains tight through 2027, with prices on an upward trajectory. (TrendForce, 2026-07-30) https://www.dramexchange.com
Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra: "In calendar 2027 as well as 2028, we see demand exceeding supply. In fact, we see greater tightness in the industry in 2027 and in 2028 versus 2026." (Micron via Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-06) https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-says-ram-shortages-drag-113000570.html
Samsung expects the shortage to deepen in 2027 and persist through 2028. (CNET, 2026-07-30) https://www.cnet.com
Goldman Sachs: Supply-demand tightness for DRAM, NAND, and HBM will persist through 2028. (Goldman Sachs via Shanghai Securities News, 2026-06-01) https://www.cnstock.com
LongPort analysis: Conventional DRAM price increases will be most intense in 2026, slow in 2027, and face downward pressure in 2028. (LongPort, 2026-10-08) https://longportapp.cn
| Source | Forecast End of Tightness | Key Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Gartner | Late 2027 | Meaningful relief not expected until then[reference:26] |
| TrendForce | H2 2027 (NAND); 2028 (DRAM) | NAND supply to ease in H2 2027; DRAM tight through 2027[reference:27][reference:28] |
| Micron | 2028 | Shortages expected to last into 2028[reference:29] |
| Samsung | 2028 | Shortage to deepen in 2027 and persist through 2028[reference:30] |
| Goldman Sachs | 2028 | Tightness to persist through 2028[reference:31] |
| Intel | 2028 | "No relief until 2028"[reference:32] |
Gartner. "Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Exceed $1.3 Trillion in 2026." 2026-04-08. https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-04-08-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-semiconductor-revenue-to-exceed-us-dollars-one-point-3-trillion-in-2026
Bloomberg. "Why the AI Boom Will Make Phones, Cars and Electronics More Expensive." 2026-03-08. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-ai-boom-memory-chip-shortage/
TrendForce. "2026 Foundry Outlook: AI Fuels Price Hikes and Growth." 2026-03-06. https://www.trendforce.com/research/download/RP260306ID3
TrendForce / DRAMeXchange. "Strong AI Momentum to Drive 24.8% Growth in Foundry Revenue in 2026." 2026-03-19. https://www.dramexchange.com
Yahoo Finance. "Micron says RAM shortages will drag into 2028." 2026-10-06. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-says-ram-shortages-drag-113000570.html
TrendForce. "Diverging Memory Market Outlook in 2027." 2026-07-30. https://www.dramexchange.com
CNET. "Samsung Expects the Chip Shortage to Get Worse Before It Gets Better." 2026-07-30. https://www.cnet.com
Shanghai Securities News. "Goldman Sachs: Memory supply shortage to persist through 2028." 2026-06-01. https://www.cnstock.com
LongPort. "SK Hynix: Super AI Boost, How Long Can the Memory Myth Last?" 2026-10-08. https://longportapp.cn
OC3D. "NAND Flash supply constraints expected to ease in 2027." 2026-07-21. https://overclock3d.net
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